Week 1 Threesome
After a beautiful back door cover from ODU +32.5, Dobs is rolling into Saturday’s Week 1 slate with some confidence. While there are very few numbers to go off of, there is a combination of healthy trends and identifiable narratives.
Noon ET:
1) Penn St. +6 @ Wisconsin
I usually don’t like doubling up on a bet, and this is somewhat doing just that as I am also big on the Penn State win total OVER. That said, I see Penn State as very underrated heading into the season. Sean Clifford is not as bad as he started last season, and there are athletes and weapons on both sides of the ball. I’m expecting a big season from Johan Dotson for PSU, and this game could be somewhat of his national coming out party.
While Wisconsin is my default pick to win the Big Ten East, I see these as more evenly matched teams and I see value in the line. To Dobs, this is a coin flip game that will likely be decided by a FG in either direction.
Finally, history is on the side of the Dobs. Below are the last 7 meetings of the two teams, and Penn State is 6-1 both straight up and against the spread. This includes wins as outright dogs in both 2016 and 2013, and in the latter game the Nittany Lions were 25 point dogs.
The trend continues, Penn State in the upset: 31-27.
The Night Caps:
2) UTSA +5 @ Illinois
This is a simple fade of a team coming off an emotional Big 10 win vs Nebraska in Week 0. The line is screaming for the public to pounce on Illinois, but Dobs isn’t falling for it. The Roadrunners of UTSA have been vey good to Dobs over the past few seasons, and that trend continues today.
UTSA has 21 starters back, including a stud at RB in Sincere McCormick (1,467 yards & 5.9 ypc in ‘20). The Roadrunners will pounce all over Illinois early and have a great chance to win outright.
I like UTSA 1H and full game, and I see the upset happening here as well. UTSA 35 Illinois 27.
3) Georgia +3.5 vs Clemson
This just seems like the right play. These teams are, I assume, pretty evenly matched. Georgia is certainly a trendy National Title pick, and I do have a future on Clemson, so this is somewhat of a hedge, but more than that, it’s a value play.
I see this as being a very close game, one in which there will likely be an opportunity to get Clemson as an dog playing it live, which I will look to do in/when Georgia take a lead.
Georgia 24 Clemson 21
Bonus Game:
Oklahoma -32 vs Tulane…this game moved to Norman, and unfortunately, Tulane is just dealing with too much right now to want to play football. Oklahoma has National Title hopes and Rattler has a Heisman campaign to get started today.
OU 56 Tulane 14