There’s a lot to cover and not a lot of time. Dobs has never been one for filler, so we’re going to bypass the foreplay and get right to the main event. Below are the bets that Dobs has made along with the level of confidence or units if applicable.
FUTURES:
Oklahoma: Under 9.5 Wins -105
The Sooners have done nothing to address one of the worse defenses in college football. Dillon Gabriel is a nice transfer portal addition but this team getting to 10 wins means the offense has to stay healthy and continuously put up 40+ point games.
I’m giving OK 7 wins (Arkansas St, Tulsa, Cin, Iowa St, UCF, OK St and WVU). Let’s also assume they take care of SMU week 2 - it’s not a lock but a fair assumption. I’m also giving them a loss to Texas, so 8-1.
OK will need to go 2-1 at Kansas (Kansas off a bye), at BYU (2nd to last week of season) and hosting TCU on 11/24. I just don’t see a team with a defense this bad going 10-2 and the juice is very friendly for a season long win total.
California: Under 5 Wins +100
Strong juice as you don’t get the hook, but I really don’t see Cal getting to 6 wins. The Bears play all of the top teams in the Pac 12 and have 5 conference road games.
I see 7 losses on the schedule with only one lock win, Idaho. Maybe it’s 2 if you give Cal week 1 at North Texas (but that’s going to be a tough game in some serious heat). Cal should lose to: Auburn, Washington, Oregon St, Utah, USC, Oregon and UCLA. So Cal would need to win out just to get to a push, and I would be surprised if Cal went undefeated against North Texas, Arizona St, Washington St and Stanford.
Arizona State: Over 4.5 Wins
This is the opposite of the Cal Under bet. ASU plays an astounding 8 home games with a weaker schedule than Cal. With a huge percentage of the offensive starters returning I could see ASU getting to 5 wins in its first 6 games: Southern Utah, Oklahoma St, Fresno St, Cal and Colorado - the loss is USC.
If ASU doesn’t start out 5-1, the over will likely come down to the final week of the season vs Arizona. So there will be an opportunity to hedge somewhat.
Maryland: Over 7 Wins -155
The juice on this one sucks, but that’s because I really don’t see a scenario where Maryland only wins 6 games. Maybe it’s a push, but that’s probably the worst case scenario.
Maryland should handle: Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, Indiana, Northwestern and Rutgers. That’s 6 pretty easy wins; with the toughest game being at Rutgers the last week of the season. Maryland will lose to Ohio St, Michigan and Penn State.
So to Push Maryland just needs to beat one of: Michigan State, Illinois or Nebraska. I actually think there’s a decent chance the Terps go 3-0, and they should be a favorite in all three games.
Auburn: Over 6.5 Wins -135
Auburn is underrated heading into the year. Last year the Tigers were -11 in turnovers, so expect some positive mean reversion. The schedule also helps as Auburn should be able to sleepwalk to 6 wins: (UMass, Cal, Samford, Miss St, Vandy and New Mexico State). I also see Arkansas as a likely win, which gets us to the 7 we need.
I’m assuming losses to Bama, LSU and Georgia, so the real fulcrum games are Arkansas, at Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
Texas to win the Big 12: -110
Simply put, all Texas has to do is make it to the title game. The Longhorns will be a favorite no matter who it plays, so there will be significant opportunity to hedge and lock in a positive return.
This is one of the most talented teams in the country and I’d be shocked if UT isn’t in the top 2 in the Big 12 at the end of the regular season.
To Win Conference Bets:
MAC: NIU +1500 (it’s the MAC…if it’s not Toledo then it’s anyone’s shot. Go with long odds).
Mountain West: San Jose State +1400 (have a shot to play in the title game)
Sun Belt: Liberty +240
AAC: UTSA +475 - it’s not going to be Tulane again. FAU and SMU are also solid choices.
WEEK 0 Picks
Ohio +2.5 at San Diego State
Simple handicap here, Ohio is the better team with the better QB and the better coach. Ohio returns 15 starters from a team that started the season 2-3 but finished with 10 wins. The QB, Rourke, is the best in the MAC and maybe the best non-Power 5 QB in the country. I think Ohio wins this game outright, but I’ll take the points as 2.5 is a key number in CFB.
New Mexico State -7 vs UMass
UMass does return 15 starters. That said, the team was 1-11 last year, so the starters suck. This is a crappy football team having to travel from a temperate MA climate to freaking New Mexico. It’s going to be 100 degrees and these Massholes are just going to want to grab a Dunkin’ Iced Coffee and get back to Amherst.