Spend Your Friday Night In The Navy!
At first glance, Dobs loves taking a Service Academy getting double digit points. In fact, it’s almost as good as betting Service Academies in bowl games or the Under when they play each other. However, when digging into the numbers, Dobs likes it even more. All of Dobs Nation should be pulling the trigger on the Midshipmen +12.5 tonight. Let’s take a look:
SMU and Navy are going in opposite directions. SMU has lost 3 in a row while Navy is coming off a drubbing of Tulsa, a game in which it was getting 4.5 points. One thing of note in the Tulsa game, it’s very difficult for modern offenses, that literally don’t have a FB on the roster, to prepare for a triple option where the FB is the focal point of the offense. Tulsa’s coach mentioned that after the game and SMU is running into similar issues this week in practice.
Beyond the anecdotes, SMU’s defensive ratings are being carried by its pass defense. Which is unfortunate because Navy doesn’t throw the ball, ever. Where it matters, SMU ranks 110th nationally in run defense and 86th in tackling, according to PFF. I will counter that point by saying that SMU does have a strong pass offense and Navy does not defend the pass well, ranking 113th nationally. So basically, each defense’s weakness is the other offense’s strength, and vice versa.
Digging a little deeper though, we can see that Navy does have a couple of potential advantages. It does rank 10th in the nation in sack rate, with a sack generated on nearly 10% of possessions. The units also performs far better defensively in passing down situations than non-passing down situations. It ranks 14th nationally in passing down line yards allowed while 108th in standard down line yards. The Navy pass rush could present a problem for SMU QB Tanner Mordecai as he sports a solid 94.6 passer rating when operating out of a clean pocket but only a 60.5 QBR when he is hurried. This is, of course, in addition to the offense being turnover prone.
When SMU is on offense, its numbers have been steadily treading in the wrong direction. While statistically it does look solid across the board, it is turnover prone. The Mustangs turn the ball over on 16.7% of possessions, which is 104th nationally. Navy, as one would expect, does not turn the ball over.
Is SMU the better team? Yes, probably. Will SMU win the game? I’m assuming it will. That said, even if these teams were drastically mismatched, and I’m not convinced they are, it’s very tough to beat Navy by two touchdowns given they run the ball 80% of the time, don’t turn the ball over, don’t make stupid penalties and do sustain long, clock eating drives.
Finally, it would be extremely un-American to back SMU over the United States Navy, and Dobs supports our troops. Let’s cash a winner tonight Dobs Nation!