Once again, Dobs Nation is riding high off a 4-1 week 2. Thankfully, this ain’t our first rodeo and the Dobs, aka gambling Jesus, aka the Casino Crusher, aka Dobber Claus, aka Le Grand Dobs never lets the massive success go to his head. As a result, despite the superior intellect, and some might say clairvoyance, of the great Big Dobs, it’s the 9-to-5, lunch pail mentality that keeps Dobs going.
This week Dobs Nation is looking at two big favorites, three big dogs and of course, Penn State in a white-out against a shitty road quarterback.
Dobs blesses his disciples with his weekly forecasts:
The big favorites with something to prove:
Ohio State 1H -14.5 vs Tulsa
Oklahoma -22 vs Nebraska
Both of these games are really the same handicap. We have two teams who many picked as National Champs, and playoff participants at the very least. While Oklahoma remains undefeated, it was hardly impressive in barely escaping Tulane in week 1. That underperformance is costing the Sooners at least 6 points in this line. Nebraska is one of the more one dimensional teams in the nation, and OU needs a statement blowout early in the season. This game won’t be within 30.
As far as Ohio State goes, it’s fairly binary. Either the team quits after last week’s loss to Oregon, or the team comes out like Carl Winslow after finding out that Urkel knocked up Laura. Dobs is betting on the latter.
Remember, this is an Ohio State team that put up over 600 yards of offense on Oregon and lost. Tulsa is not Oregon. Tulsa knows it’s about to get its ass kicked and its only goal is to not have its entire roster injured. Maybe Ohio State takes its foot off the gas ahead of Big 10 play, but Dobs doubts it; so Dobs won’t call you a clown if you want to take the full game line as well.
Triple option teams and big lines:
Georgia Southern +23.5 @Arkansas
Uconn +34.5 @ Army
Under 48.5 Uconn @ Army
Yes, Dobs is betting on the worst college football team in the nation. Yes, it’s extremely possible that Uconn doesn’t score. The handicap here is simply that triple option teams, especially the service academies, cover big lines and don’t cover lines over 20 70%+ of the time. Triple option teams like Army run the ball, chew up clock, then they run the ball and chew up more clock. No, Uconn will not stop Army, but Army can also eat up 10 minutes on a single drive. So long as Uconn can get a few first downs, it’s going to be very difficult for Army to win by more than 5 touchdowns. Given that, the Under 48.5 is also a brilliant play.
Georgia Southern is also a triple option team, though one that is traveling to Arkansas to face a Razorbacks team in a huge let down spot. Georgia Southern gets its starting QB back, who was academically ineligible for the first two games. Given the combination of the spot for Arkansas, let-down after huge win over Texas is a meaningless game against Georgia Southern, preceding the meat of the SEC schedule. One team simply cares way more about this game, and Georgia Southern isn’t nearly as bad as the first two weeks would imply. Arkansas will win, but this game could be pretty tight heading into the 4th.
The line is too big:
Vanderbilt +12 vs Stanford
This is a simple overreaction to Stanford beating USC last week, and Vandy losing to an FCS team in week 1. It’s a let down spot for Stanford, who is traveling across the country to play in front of 17 fans. Maybe Stanford really gets up for this game in that it came beat up on an “SEC Team” on the road, but Dobs isn’t buying it. Dobs also isn’t buying that Stanford is actually any good. These teams are probably closer to evenly matched than they are to one being two touchdowns better than the other. Dobs wouldn’t even have a problem with you taking Vandy on the money line.
Money Line Parlay Bonus:
Dobs is feeling a little awkward just thinking about how many of his readers are starting to get boners right now, but parlay these three favorites on the ML for a +125 payout:
Troy: lock city
UAB: will beat down North Texas
Penn State: WILL NOT LOSE TO BO NIX PLAYING IN A WHITE OUT