Anyone who’s been following Big Dobs for the past couple of years knows that I prefer the esoteric. Lines on UTSA vs UTEP are far less efficient than a regular season NFL game, and that level of efficiency steps up in the playoffs as there is even more data and less distraction for bookmakers.
The efficiency and accuracy of the lines is why I like teasers, especially teasing underdogs through key numbers. This weekend’s games are all pretty interesting, so below I’m providing my take on all four games along with every bet I have on right now.
Packers -7 (-105) vs Rams O/U 45.5
If I had to take a side and a total, I’m on the Packers -7 and the Under. The Rams just have too many question marks at key positions, even with a historically great secondary. Offensively, when the Rams don’t have Kupp the offense struggles, significantly. Goff is not a good QB, and he had pins in his throwing hand. The game plan will be to run and try to keep Rogers and Davante Adams off the field.
The Packers home-field advantage is a little less without a crowd, and although Rogers is statistically the best QB in the NFL this year, especially with the deep ball, I expect the Rams secondary to mitigate that. Aaron Donald is hurt, and if he doesn’t play that is a huge loss (understatement of the year). I was impressed with the work that AJ Dillon got towards the end of the regular season, and I think he will end up being critical as the Packers advance throughout the playoffs.
Ultimately, I think the Packers win fairly comfortably in a pretty ugly game.
Final Score: Packers 23 Rams 13
Bills -2.5 (-120) vs Ravens O/U 49.5
I was on the Ravens money line in week one and I’m on the Ravens again in the divisional round. I love Josh Allen, I love the Bills and their fan base, but I really think the Ravens are peaking at the right time here. The Bills are vulnerable against the run, that’s not good playing the Ravens. The Ravens defense also excels against the pass, and Buffalo only passes. This is just a bad match-up for the Bills.
I see this game as a coin toss, so I’ll take the points. If betting it by itself I’d pay the juice to get the 3, or just try and find a 3. Mybookie.AG has the Ravens at +2.5 +100, so you’re paying no juice. As you’ll see below, I’m also teasing the Ravens to get them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 (Ravens +8.5.
As far as the total goes, pay attention to the weather. At 49.5 I will lean over, and I’m calling for the Ravens to win in an exciting, back and forth game.
Final Score: Ravens 31 Bills 27
Chiefs -10 (-105) vs Browns O/U 57.5
The Browns stunned everyone last week, and they certainly cost me some money as I had the Steelers to close out two different ML parlays. Something in the back of mind is telling me that the Chiefs aren’t going to the Super Bowl this year, and yes, I do think it’s possible that the Browns win this game. I don’t think it’s likely, but I think it’s possible. The game plan is hand-off to Chubb 30 times and Hunt 25, try to keep pressure off Baker with play action and designed roll-outs, and keep your defense off the field as much as possible.
The Chiefs are going to score, a lot. But if the Chiefs end up scoring quickly, yes, the Browns have a crap defense and Mahomes doesn’t turn the ball over, I think that the Browns offense can eventually wear down the Chiefs. If the Browns can keep this game within the 10-14 range going into the 4th, I can definitely see a scenario where the Chiefs D is just gassed and something wonky happens. At the very least, we get a back-door cover. I will take the Browns +10 and the over.
Final Score: Chiefs 38 Browns 31
Saints -3 (-115) vs Bucs O/U 52
The Saints have already beaten the Bucs twice this year, that said, I don’t know that they will be able to win a third time. Tampa’s run defense is the key unit in this game, and I’ll take Brady over Brees any day of the week. Brady remains one of the most effective downfield passers in the NFL, and Brees in incapable of throwing a football 20 yards. It’s another very evenly matched game, so the points is a no-brainer. Further, I see the Bucs as better equipped to score a late touchdown in a down 4-5 situation to win the game. I’m not sure I can put that same amount of trust in Brees that I have in Brady.
Final Score: Bucs 28 Saints 24 - yes, my total lands on a push…ugh, I would take the under if I had to, but I hate it.
Bets I have on:
2 Team Teasers:
Chief/Browns Over 51.5 & Packers -1 (-120)
Bucs +9 & Ravens +8.5 (-110)
2 Team Parlay:
Bucs +3 & Ravens +2.5 (~+300)
Straight:
Ravens +3 (buy the half point)
Futures I’m sitting on:
Packers to win the Super Bowl +450
Ravens to win the Super Bowl +850
Rogers to win MVP +550