Dobs hopes that everyone is staying safe and dry. Hurricanes are a bitch, both the weather events and the ones from University of Miami.
Dobs didn’t love the card last week, and we’re not going to force anything upon Dobs Nation. So one newsletter into the season we’re sitting at 5-3, but it’s time to stop screwing around. We’re locked and loaded for this week’s slate:
Friday Night:
San Diego State +6.5 @ Boise State
The public is on Boise, but the public is stupid. There’s a narrative that Boise State has this massive home field advantage, but that simply hasn’t been the case the past few years. This is also a Boise team that is struggling with its starting QB entering the transfer portal and it’s OC being fired. Boise is coming off a straight up loss to UTEP, 27-10. This is a game in which it was a 16.5 point favorite?!?! How do you lose by 17 when you are favored by 17, to UTEP? SDSU is the same SDSU it’s always been. It can’t throw, it can run the ball, sort of, and it plays great defense. SDSU is coming off a really nice non-conference win against Toledo, holding them to 14 points. I don’t see how Boise really scores in this game. I think SDSU wins outright, so Dobs is more than happy to take the 6.5 points. This is the lock of the week, by far! Take the Aztecs with supreme confidence.
Tulane +115 ML vs Houston
Houston is one of the most disappointing teams of the season. This is also a funny spread, Tulane +2. I don’t trust Houston, I don’t trust the coach. I think the team has quit and Dobs Nation will make money for the rest of the year fading teams that quit. Boise State has quit, we’re fading them. Houston has quit, we’re fading them.
UTSA -4 @ MTSU
This is very simply pattern recognition. We’ve seen numerous times this season a team come off a huge upset win and then lose the next week, namely group of 5 teams beating Power 5 teams as a big dog. MTSU isn’t good. Yes, it’s coming off a 45-31 win against Miami as a 25.5 point underdog, which is just ridiculous, but this is the same team that lost to James Fucking Madison 44-7 in week 1. This is going to be another let down off a big upset with the Road Runners coming to town. UTSA is a good team, potentially a very good team (certainly for Group of 5). It’s two losses are vs Houston in OT ( a cover) and at Texas, a game they were leading at halftime. It’s a team that has no problem traveling, with a 41-38 win at Army. The spread tells you that Vegas knows something, and so does Dobs. Lay the points, the Road Runners are going to slap the clowns from MTSU all over the field.
Bonus: Parlay the 3 ML for +950
Happy Friday Night Lights all.