Heaven? Better...it's Dobs' Top Season Total Plays
We are counting down to Week 0 action and Dobs is more excited than Trump at an AC strip club.
It’s also not too late to tail Dobs on the best Season Win Total bets of the 2021 CFB Season, so here are my top 12…actually, F it, let’s make it a baker’s dozen.
There isn’t a ton of data to go off for season totals, despite the win projections of some. What I do is look at returning production, the transfer portal and the schedule. I then go game by game and isolate the near certain wins and losses. Then with the remaining games I will estimate a probability of winning/losing and come up with a weighted win total. If that total is well off the Vegas line, I bet it. If it’s within a half a game, I will likely stay away.
For these purposes, I am breaking the games into:
WIN
Probably Win - I count this as a win, but I’m less confident than WIN
Possible Win - A coin flip type game
Probably Loss - Likely to lose, but there’s a chance
LOSS
Given that, let’s start with the teams that give Dobs a chubby. The OVERS:
UCLA : Over 7 -105: This number is just way too low. I see UCLA as having 7 confident wins on their schedule, two confident losses and 3 games somewhere in between. Even if UCLA drops one of the 7 wins (maybe AZ State), then it would just need to win 1 of 5 for a push, 2 for a win. That’s very hedgable: Projected Finish: 8-4
Hawaii: WIN
LSU: Possible Win
BYE
Fresno St: WIN
@ Stanford: WIN
Arizona St.: Probably Win
@Arizona: WIN
@ Washington: LOSS
Oregon: Probably LOSS
@ Utah: LOSS
BYE
Colorado: WIN
@USC: Possible Win
Cal: WIN
Washington: Over 9 -110: A lot of people are high on Oregon, who has the same number as Washington. I’m not. This is a talented team, it’s well coached, and the schedule is very favorable. The Huskies are also my pick to win the PAC12 Championship: Projected Finish: 10-1, and I think there is a real chance to go 11-0
Montana: WIN
@Michigan: Possible Win
Arkansas St.: WIN
Cal: WIN
@Oregon State: WIN
BYE
UCLA: WIN
@Arizona: WIN
Oregon: Possible Win
Arizona St.: WIN
@Colorado: WIN
@Washington St.: WIN
Oklahoma: Over 11 -110: The Sooners will be 10-0 heading into the Nov. 20 home game vs. Iowa State. Now I don’t think the Sooners lose that game, but you can easily take Iowa State plus the points and potentially win both sides. This team is way too talented to drop a game prior to the playoffs: Projected Finish: 12-0
Penn State: Over 9 +120: This line is definitely high, but I will take the +120 juice as I do think this is a 10 win team. There are probably some 8.5s floating around there, and if you can find it, hammer it. Last year was a fluke and there is only 1 true LOSS on the schedule, @Ohio St. Projected Finish: 10-2 (possible 11-1)
@Wisconsin: Possible Win
Ball St.: WIN
Auburn: Probably Win
Nova: WIN
Indiana: WIN
@Iowa: Probably Win
BYE
Illinois: WIN
@Ohio St: LOSS
@Maryland: WIN
Michigan: WIN
@Rutgers: WIN
@MSU: WIN
Texas A&M: Over 9.5 +105: There isn’t a lot of room for error here, but the schedule is very favorable and the Aggies will be 5-0 heading into an October 9 home game against Bama. That’s a loss before corss-over games @MO and vs SC, those are wins. The 7-1 Aggies will then have a bye prior to playing Auburn at home, 8-1, @MS and an FCS means that A&M is likely already 10-1 heading into the season finale @ LSU. That said, even if the Aggies drop a game, you’ll be at 9 wins and can potentially hedge the LSU finale. Projected Finish: 10-2
Vandy: Over 3.5 -105: This total scared the crap out of me until I saw the schedule. Vandy will win it’s first two games: East Tennessee St and @ Colorado St. Vandy will also curb stomp UConn at home on October 2nd. So then the question is, can Vandy either win at home against Stanford on Sept. 18 (Game is sandwiched in between USC and UCLA, which really plays to Vandy’s advantage). Or, can the Dores just win one F’ing SEC game. I think they can. Projected Finish: 5-7
SMU: Over 6.5: Just trust me on this one.
Now that Dobs Nation has locked up those bad boys, let’s move onto the losers. The UNDERS:
Indiana: Under 7.5 +100: When was the last time Indiana has won 8 games in a season? Yes, Pinnix is returning, but he’s also coming off a torn ACL and can’t stay healthy. People are really thinking this team is going to win 8 games playing in the Big10 East? I only see 4 WINS, and I’m giving Indiana the benefit of the doubt on some that will likely be losses. I am more confident in this total than any single total. Load the F’ing boat with C4 and blow this B up. Projected Finish: 6-6 - Seriously, in order for this team to get 8 wins it would need to win the 4 locks then go undefeated in my ‘coin flip games’: @MD, @Purdue vs MI and vs MN…I just don’t see that happening.
@Iowa: LOSS
Idaho: WIN
Cincinnati: Probably Loss
@WKU: WIN
@Penn St.: LOSS
BYE
Michigan St: WIN
Ohio St: LOSS
@Maryland: Possible Win
@Michigan: Possible Win
Rutgers: WIN
Minnesota:Possible Win
@Purdue: Possible Win
Oregon: Under 9 -110: The schedule is just brutal. I don’t see how people are high on this team with this schedule. 10-2? Well Oregon is not winning at Ohio State week 2. It ain’t happening. So that means Oregon would need to beat its toughest PAC12 opponents, and they are all on the road: @UCLA, @Washington and @Utah. I see the Ducks going 1-2 in those games, with 2-1 being the best case scenario. Projected Finish: 8-4 (a push is very possible here)
Arkansas: Under 5.5 -115: Very similar to Indiana, this is another line that makes no sense to me. Arkansas simply doesn’t have 6 winnable games on its schedule. Seriously, look at the below and find me 6 wins. I actually think @Ole Miss and Missouri should both be LOSSes, but just to be conservative we will call them probably losses. There are 3 certain wins on the schedule and 6 certain losses. That means the R-backs need to go 3-0 in probable loss games? STFU, this is lock. Projected Finish: 4-8
Rice: WIN
Texas: LOSS
GA Southern: WIN
A&M: LOSS
@ GA: LOSS
@Ole Miss: Probably Loss
Auburn: LOSS
Pine Bluff: WIN
Mississippi St: Probably Loss
@LSU: LOSS
@Bama: LOSS
Missouri: Probably Loss
USF: Under 3.5 -105: USF sucks, and USF will continue to suck. This team is not winning 4 games. The Bulls have one possible conference win, vs Temple. The out of conference schedule will be 1-3: @NC State, vs Florida, @ BYU and home against FL A&M (guess which one I have as the win). So that’s two wins. These clowns literally need to double that in order for Dobs to lose. So let’s see if we can find two more wins:
@SMU: No Shot
Tulsa: Nope
@ECU: Highly doubtful
Houston: Negative
Cincinnati: GTFO
@UCF: HAHAHAHA
@Tulane: Seriously doubt it
So we were needing two wins and we got a big, fat shit sandwich. Thanks for playing USF. Projected Finish: 2-10
BYU: Under 6.5 +120: This is a 6-6 team. It’s not a 7-5 team, it’s probably not a 5-7 team. It’s a 6-6 team. I don’t love only having a half game of cushion, but for +120, like Penn St., I will take it. Projected Finish: 6 & F’ing 6
Maryland: Under 6 -120: F Maryland. I see 6-6 as the best case scenario here with only 2 WINS (Howard and Kent St.). There are losses vs WV, Iowa, Ohio St., @MN, Penn St. and Michigan. That’s 6 losses right there. So Maryland would have to go undefeated against: @Illinois (maybe), vs Indiana (ehh, maybe), @Michigan State (certainly possible) and then a season finale @Rutgers (not a chance in hell Maryland wins this game). Projected Finish: 4-8