To celebrate Dobstober, the greatest month of the year, Dobs Nation is being treated to a full slate of winners. There’s enough data, and enough evidence on motivation, to make smart plays this week. We’ll start with Friday night and move on from there:
Rutgers +3 vs Nebraska: This is Dobs’ first Rutgers play of the season, and it’s going to be an ugly one. The two worst units on the field are the Nebraska Defense and Rutgers Offense. The Huskers allow TDs on nearly 40% of opponent drives, the unit doesn’t force any turnovers nor 3 & outs. The Rutgers offense is not only bad, but also extremely one dimensional, especially given thatRutgers has been playing with its 3rd string QB since the Iowa game.
Digging a little deeper, however, Rutgers poor offensive numbers are much more the result of the complete inability to throw the ball. Rutgers rushing offense is actually pretty solid, especially when adjusted for the fact that its only losses are vs Iowa and @ Ohio State. On Rutgers game winning drive in Week 1 @ Boston College, Rutgers went 94 yards for a TD without completing a single pass. When looking at the advanced metrics for Nebraska’s defense, it’s a unit that ranks especially low in the front 7 in creating havoc, it’s a unit that allows solid gains on standard downs, and has a stuff rate of only 14%. To compare, Rutgers has a stuff rate rushing defense of 25% and only allows a 14% stuff rate on offense. So I think there is a very good chance that Rutgers wins the battles at the point of attack. Rutgers is especially awful in passing down situations, and Nebraska can create some havoc from the secondary, but I see this mismatch being less crucial to the outcome of the game than the running game advantages for Rutgers.
There are two programs going in opposite directions, take the Italians plus the points against the Farmers.
Memphis -2.5 vs Houston: Warning to Dobs Nation, this bet doesn’t look great on paper. Everything from a talent, to even a numbers perspective tells you that Houston is the better team and should be favored. The line has even moved from -3 to -2.5, that said, I’m banking on the fact that Houston has quit. This was a team that was supposed to contend for a NY6 Bowl Game and now it’s struggling to stay above 0.500. Dobs Nation has always benefited from placing a high degree of importance on the mental and emotional aspect of college kids in football games, and I think Memphis is going to want this a lot more than Houston. For the second week in a row Dobs is going against “the experts” and fading a soft Houston team.
TCU -7 @ Kansas: It’s a really nice story for Kansas but the clock is striking midnight. Kansas has 0 chance of stopping TCU, and I don’t think Kansas will continue to have the same level of offensive success against TCU as it did against other opponents. TCU wins this game and it won’t be close. I’m also fine with taking the TCU team over.
Northwestern + 10 vs Wisconsin and Air Force -10 vs Utah State: Utah State is total garbage. Northwestern had an EASY cover last week against Penn State. Wisconsin is still mispriced by Vegas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pats Cats win outright against one of the worst QBs in the history of organized football.
Washington State +12.5 @ USC: I’m picking this to be the week for USC mean reversion. It’s had extreme turnover luck this year and Washington State will present a challenge in a big look-ahead spot for USC (Utah is up next).
The Over/Unders:
Purdue @ Maryland OVER 59: This game will be firmly in the 30s on each side.
Utah @ UCLA UNDER 64: Two heavy rush offenses that will put together more methodical drives as both defenses can curtail the big plays. If I had to pick a side, I’d be on UCLA.
Wake @ Army UNDER 67.5: Dobs might live to regret this one, but any time I see a total of almost 70 with a Service Academy playing I’m hammering the under. Now Wake will throw all over Army and I don’t see Wake’s D stopping Arm’s option, so maybe I’m wrong…
Good luck, and Happy Dobstober!