Friday Night Bonus Time
Dobs Nation is firmly on Buffalo tonight, but why bet one game when you can win money on two?
USC -3.5 vs Oregon
USC HT / USC FT +120
USC vs Oregon Over 65.5
Last year, I was all over Oregon as a dog against Utah. This year, the mismatch has reversed. A few weeks ago, I put out that Oregon State would cover in Civil War and that the game would go over, by a lot. This handicap turned out to be very correct and it was based on Oregon’s poor defense and it’s lack of ball control. This time around, it’s even worse.
USC has gotten lucky on multiple occasions this year. Yes, that shows that the team isn’t as good as it’s undefeated record, but it also shows that the team is resilient, it knows how to come back and it knows how to win close games. It’s been tested; that’s a good thing, at the margin.
The handicap for this game is actually even simpler. Both offenses are very good, though USC’s is a little better across the board. Oregon’s defense is bad, USC’s is pretty solid, statistically speaking of course. So advantage USC, but that’s not really a handicap - it does lead me to like the over, but it’s hardly something to give me much conviction on a side. Here’s what does…
Oregon is 124th in the nation in turning the ball over on offense. The Ducks are giving the ball away on 19.3% of all drives. USC protects the ball extremely well and Oregon’s D is brutal, it certainly doesn’t force turnovers or 3-and-outs. The turnover stat spells further trouble for Oregon in this game as the Trojan defense is 4th in the nation at forcing turnovers - 22% of opponent drives. Turnovers is the single stat most correlated to winning and losing football games. The more you win the turnover battle, the better chance you have at winning the game.
USC will win the turnover battle. USC will win the game, and USC should be in position to be safe from a back door by the Ducks. I’d just be ready to hedge live in case we’re ever in danger.