For those following along on Twitter, Big Dobs is 12-0-1 to start bowl season. In full disclosure, this is a little misleading as many of these bets are on the same game. For example, Georgia State -4, Georgia State 1H -2.5, Georgia State 1H & FT and WKU Team total under. That said, wins are wins, and Dobs is taking a small amount of recent profits and rolling them into a huge underdog moneyline parlay that has a chance of hitting.
Note, I’m still long the 3-team ML underdog parlay that has already hit Liberty +220. That parlay also had South Carolina, but that bowl was cancelled. The remaining teams are Ole Miss +205, which I still really like, and UNC +215, which I hate given all the opt-outs.
I have $10 on the below 4-Team Parlay, it pays out just over 100:1…
Colorado +290 vs Texas: I’m also on Colorado plus the points, I got in at 11.5 and the line is down to 9. Texas has zero motivation to play this game and everyone, outside of Ehlinger, is sitting out. I really like the way this Buffs team plays. I think it has a better chance of Texas being blown out than Colorado being blown out, purely on motivation. This is what bowl season is all about. Take CO +9 and take the ML too.
Army +225 vs West Virginia: Service Academies dominate in bowl games. They care, they prepare, and WVU just had its opponent changed up on them, now they prepare for the triple option. The total on this game is 41.5, and while WVU has the clear talent advantage, I see the game being tight enough for Army to be able to pull off the upset.
Arkansas +165 vs TCU: Both teams are well coached, I simply see this as a coin flip game. I think Arkansas will end up wanting it more, I will also take Arkansas plus the points.
Ole Miss +205 vs Indiana: Ole Miss will be without its stud WRs, and if it comes down to this game I will be hedging the shit out of it, that said, Indiana is also without its QB. I see this as a track meet and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Indiana not be able to keep pace.
In addition to Colorado plus the points tonight I’m also on:
Under 60.5 Miami vs Oklahoma State
This total is simply too high as there is some recency bias with recent games for both teams. Miami got motor-boated by UNC and OSU racked up points against TCU. I think this game stays on the ground, neither team is especially motivated, Miami has it’s top 3 pass rushers out and OSU is missing its best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard. Miami also has the 3rd best punting unit in the country, making this even more of a field position battle. The game is expected to be close, so I could get burnt in OT. But the line is just too high to not bet. It’s now a point higher than Liberty vs Coastal (Dobs was on the over), and I don’t see how there will be more points in this game.
Good luck, let’s keep this train rolling.